![]() you’re dealt a pair and you flop a set with it) over 100 hands is almost exactly 50%. The probability of hitting at least one set (i.e. Let’s take a look at some probabilities and assume you’ll always see a flop with your pocket pairs. Now most pocket pairs are only really good if you flop a set with them. The guy to your right is claiming he hasn’t seen a pair over the last two days? He’s almost certainly bullshitting you. Expand the streak to 200 hands and the probability drops to less 0.0005%. The probability of not being dealt a single pocket pair over 50 hands is a little bit under 5% – unlikely, but very possible. Have you ever sat at a poker table for hours and not been dealt a single playable hand? Have you ever had someone claim he wasn’t dealt a single ace over dozens – or even hundreds! – of hands?
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